The troubles of "medium-sized" baby trees | rtp merdeka777, slot online dengan dana, game mancing terbaik

Author / Science and Technology Valley

BabyTree may still have a lot to do to gain real favor from investors in the secondary market.

Right now, BabyTree’s most urgent need to deal with is the problem of user loss. According to data disclosed in its prospectus, as of June 30, 2018, the number of monthly active users of Babytree dropped to 89.5 million, compared with 177.2 million in the same period last year, and more than half of the monthly active users were lost. At the same time, the gross merchandise volume (GMV) of the e-commerce business, one of the three main businesses of the platform, fell to 557.7 million yuan, compared with 807.1 million yuan in the same period last year; the number of paying users fell to 2.7 million, compared with 3.6 million in the same period last year. The large-scale loss of active users has not only affected the decline in e-commerce revenue, one of the three core businesses, but also made the future direction of the entire platform model full of variables.

Fortunately, although the number of active users of BabyTree is declining, it has not affected the revenue growth of the entire platform. The prospectus shows that from 2015 to 2017, the platform's total revenue reached 200 million yuan, 510 million yuan, and 730 million yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 91%. At the same time, BabyTree has established China's largest commercial mother and baby group database. These may be the keys to attracting investment from capital giants such as Alibaba and Fosun.

Currently, BabyTree's IPO has entered the IPO period. After listing, how will BabyTree solve the problem of declining user activity? How to curb the decline in e-commerce revenue? And it is crucial to quickly find new profit models.

Alibaba additional investment

Many Internet companies agree on the business strategy of making periodic strategic losses in exchange for high competition barriers in the future. For BabyTree, although its book losses have reached RMB 2.1 billion in the past three years, it has not affected its value judgment in the primary market. Recently, Hong Kong media reported that Alibaba, a strategic shareholder of Baby Tree, has decided to exercise its anti-dilution rights and will make additional investments in Baby Tree and continue to subscribe to the company's IPO quota. According to the prospectus disclosed by BabyTree, Alibaba (through its wholly-owned subsidiary Taobao China) invested a total of US$214 million in BabyTree.

BabyTree, which has received additional investment from Alibaba, currently has the first shareholder the family of BabyTree founder Wang Huainan holding 26.09%, the second shareholder Fosun Group holding 24.84%, and the third shareholder TAL holding 10.18%, with Alibaba holding 9.9% as its fourth largest shareholder.

Theoretically, the bets of Alibaba + TAL + Fosun, a group of golden investment institutions, indicate that BabyTree has certain potential to become popular. However, according to the prospectus, BabyTree has been deeply involved in the maternal and infant family field for 11 years, and its revenue is divided into three parts: advertising, e-commerce (direct sales and platforms), and knowledge payment. BabyTree's total revenue in the first half of 2018 was 410 million yuan, an increase of 12.6% compared to 360 million yuan in the first half of 2017. However, BabyTree is still a loss-making enterprise. Baby Tree's annual losses from 2015 to 2017 were 286 million yuan, 935 million yuan, and 911 million yuan respectively. The book loss expanded to 2.1 billion, and the adjusted profit exceeded 120 million. The net profit margins were -143.2%, -183.3%, and -124.9% respectively.

In order to gradually expand profits, BabyTree will focus on developing advertising business in 2018, as well as new higher-profit C2M and knowledge payment businesses. At the same time, e-commerce companies will use in-depth cooperation with Alibaba to reduce back-end operating costs, in order to focus on the core advantages of BabyTree's maternal and infant community.

Judging from the results, Baby Tree seems to still have a long way to go.

Discounted Valuation

How to judge the value of financing? In fact, it is nothing more than two points: first, use various resources of investment institutions, including brands, money and talents, to help the company grow and develop; second, let investment institutions endorse itself and increase the capital valuation of the company. At present, these two points are basically not reflected in the baby tree.

On October 25, BabyTree passed the listing hearing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Affected by the weakening of the entire market, BabyTree significantly lowered its financing expectations. The amount of funds raised was reduced to US$200 million to US$300 million, accounting for approximately 15% of its equity, with a reduction of up to 70%. Based on the price per share of HK$6.80 to HK$8.80 (approximately US$0.8682 to US$1.12), BabyTree's valuation reaches a maximum of US$1.87 billion. This valuation is significantly lower than when Alibaba last invested in the company. In May this year, Alibaba invested US$214 million in BabyTree at a valuation of US$2 billion.

In addition to the Alibaba round, BabyTree has previously completed six rounds of financing. In 2007, it received $10 million in Series A financing from Matrix Partners China and Matrix Partners Overseas. In 2008, it received $10 million in Series B financing from Matrix Partners China and Matrix Partners Overseas. In 2011, it received tens of millions from Haina Asia and Broadband Capital. In 2014, it received a RMB 150 million strategic investment from TAL (Xueersi). In 2015, it received a US$300 million Series C financing from Jumei Youpin and others. In 2016, it received a RMB 3 billion D round from Fosun Group, TAL (Xueersi), and Matrix Partners China.

At the last moment, the company's valuation suffered a discount, which put BabyTree in a very embarrassing situation at this stage. However, based on the "two-child policy" and the general social background of comprehensive liberalization of childbearing, financial consultant UBS Group has valued Baby Tree at US$3.5 billion to US$4.3 billion, and predicted that its price-earnings ratio in 2019 will reach 29.8 times to 37 times.

Unstable source of income

Whether it is a bear market or a bull market, investors will basically not misjudge potential stocks with good fundamentals.

At this stage, BabyTree’s revenue mainly comes from three sources: advertising (accounting for 51.01%), e-commerce (45.60%), and knowledge payment (3.40%).

The advertising business section has two forms. One is CPM (Cost Per Thousand). Customers purchase advertising services based on 1,000 views. The other is CPC (Cost Per Click). Every time a customer clicks on an advertisement, revenue is calculated.

The revenue recognition of the two advertising methods is based on clicks, except that CPM clicks are billed on the order of 1,000 times, while CPC clicks are billed on a single click.

It should be noted that there is a time difference between the revenue recognition and the collection of accounts from the advertising business, thus forming accounts receivable. Compared with Pinduoduo, which also relies on advertising as its main source of income, BabyTree's advertising revenue goes into advance accounts, that is, it collects money first and then promotes merchants. Comparison can be found that the strength of mass e-commerce platforms and vertical communities is quite different.

In addition, from 2015 to 2017, BabyTree's total third-party accounts receivable were 100 million yuan, 165 million yuan, and 160 million yuan, accounting for 59.88%, 61.57%, and 43.01% of the current advertising revenue. The proportion of accounts receivable showed a downward trend.

At the same time, according to the aging of accounts receivable disclosed by BabyTree, if the calculation standard is within 6 months. The proportions of accounts receivable within 6 months are 81.77%, 70.00%, and 85.65%, showing an upward trend.

Let’s look at BabyTree’s e-commerce business section. BabyTree's e-commerce business is divided into two sectors, one is a self-operated model (similar to JD.com), and the other is a platform model (similar to Tmall). The time point for revenue recognition is when the customer confirms receipt of the goods. However, in its prospectus, there is no mention of self-operation or platform. If user returns occur, there will be subsequent accounting issues.

From 2015 to 2017, the total transaction volume of the BabyTree e-commerce platform model was 419 million yuan, 1.08 billion yuan, and 1.260 billion yuan, with a transaction volume growth rate of 73.41%. Its transaction commission charging standard is 10% of the transaction amount, while Pinduoduo, whose market value is close to JD.com, only charges 0.6% of the transaction amount as commission income.

In the same period, the total transaction volume of BabyTree's e-commerce direct sales model was 46.3 million yuan, 185 million yuan, and 208 million yuan, with a growth rate of 111.95%. Although the growth rate of the total transaction volume of the direct sales model is higher than that of the platform, the total transaction volume of the platform is 6 times that of the self-operated model. To simply understand, e-commerce revenue mainly depends on the quality of third-party merchants on the platform. If the contribution of third-party merchants is unstable, BabyTree's entire e-commerce revenue performance will also be under pressure.

In addition, to further refine the e-commerce model, merchants entering the platform need to pay a merchant deposit to the platform, which will be included in other accounts payable. Merchants sell goods on the platform, and C-end users pay through the payment platform, and the payment platform pays the platform. After deducting the commission, the platform pays the merchant, which is reflected in the balance sheet as an account payable to the merchant.

In fact, the sum of these two funds is the merchant funds that the platform can occupy. According to its disclosure, BabyTree’s payment cycle is within one year.Settlement. From 2015 to 2017, merchant deposits were 3.78 million, 13.698 million, and 17.609 million, and merchant payments were 100 million yuan, 153 million yuan, and 143 million yuan, totaling 104 million yuan, 170 million yuan, and 160 million yuan.

Finally, let’s look at the revenue from BabyTree’s paid knowledge business. BabyTree's knowledge payment business consists of three parts: opening lectures (membership fee), expert Q&A (single service fee), and Quick Question Doctor (single service fee). In 2016 and 2017, in the knowledge payment business, self-operated income was 1.687 million yuan and 8.759 million yuan, accounting for 100% and 35.52% of the knowledge payment income, and agency income was 0 and 15.897 million yuan, accounting for 0% and 65% of the knowledge payment income. Note that the knowledge payment business in 2017 was mainly based on agents, so the gross profit margin of this area soared from -19.09% to more than 60%. Overall, the income from knowledge payment is still pitiful.

Baby Tree Ecology

Look back at the ecology of the baby tree. Counting from 2007, China's Internet has experienced a huge transformation from the PC era to the mobile Internet era in the past ten years. It has experienced countless hot spots such as community, social networking, group buying, O2O, Internet celebrity economy, content e-commerce, overseas shopping, knowledge payment, etc. Behind each hot spot is an industry change. BabyTree has continued to innovate over the past 11 years, constantly trying and making mistakes and staying strong, which is not easy.

If Miya and Beibei.com are the two major shopping representatives in China’s maternal and infant vertical e-commerce industry, then BabyTree is the largest maternal and infant media in China. Since BabyTree has always focused on business content in the early stage, the entire platform is completely a light platform operating model. Just like the four major portals that are well-known but no longer glorious, how to create competition barriers for the platform and become a sustainable darling of the capital market is the key.

In order to find better business models to maximize corporate value, BabyTree has been involved in more than ten fields since 2007, including Facebook, twitter, zulily, forums, B2C malls, early education products, local cities, Q&A, encyclopedias, customized products, etc. Because the company's front lines are too long, the company's operational efforts are too scattered. So far, BabyTree has not completely created an outstanding "hot" product. It can only be said that Baoshu got up early and rushed to the late market.

Compared with Beibei.com and Miya, two maternal and infant vertical shopping websites, Babytree's biggest advantage is that it entered the market early, has obvious first-mover advantages, and has a large user base, covering 80% of Chinese online parents. In 2013, its monthly user visits surpassed the American maternal and infant website babycenter to become the world's number one, and currently has more than 100 million unique monthly visits.

Although BabyTree’s massive maternal and infant population data accumulated over 11 years is currently the key to attracting capital, that may not be the case in the future.

Where is the future of BabyTree?

According to data from the Children's Industry Research Center, it is expected that China's maternal and infant industry product market size will reach 3 trillion yuan in 2018, and will maintain a high growth rate of more than 15% in the next 10 years. The maternal and infant service market will reach 1.7 trillion yuan in 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 17.3%.

Talk about the entire maternal and infant market, including vertical e-commerce companies such as Miya, Beibei.com, BabyGrid, Mama.com and Lamahui., as well as comprehensive e-commerce platforms such as Alibaba and JD.com, offline supermarkets and maternal and infant chain stores, the market competition is fierce.

According to the "China Online Retail B2C Market Quarterly Monitoring Report 2018 First Quarter" released by Analysys, in the first quarter of 2018, the transaction scale of maternal and infant products in China's online retail B2C market was 63.48 billion yuan, an increase of 54.3% compared with the same period last year. Among them, Tmall ranked first with a market share of 49.2%, nearly half; JD.com ranked second with a market share of 19.2%; Suning Redbaby ranked third with a market share of 8.0%; Vipshop and Dangdang followed closely, ranking fourth and fifth.

In the maternal and infant e-commerce business, comprehensive e-commerce platforms Tmall and JD.com have taken nearly 70% of the entire online market, almost forming an oligopoly. It is difficult for new entrants to have a greater chance of breakthrough. Overall, the baby tree is more than a little stressed.

Put aside Baby Tree and look at the entire vertical community e-commerce industry. Where is the ceiling for their future revenue growth? Let’s take Autohome (car community), which started as a vertical community, and Oriental Fortune (stock community), which started as a stock bar, as objects of understanding and make a rough comparison.

From the perspective of performance scale, Autohome's revenue from 2015 to 2017 was 3.4 billion yuan, 5.962 billion yuan, and 6.210 billion yuan. The three-year revenue compound growth rate was 33.8%, the market value was 8.609 billion US dollars, and the price-earnings ratio was about 22 times. Oriental Fortune - its revenue from 2015 to 2017 was 2.926 billion yuan, 2.352 billion yuan, and 2.547 billion yuan, with a three-year revenue compound growth rate of -6.7%, a market value of 66.205 billion yuan, and a price-to-earnings ratio of 62 times. Baby Tree - Revenue from 2015 to 2017 was 200 million yuan, 510 million yuan, and 730 million yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 91% and a valuation of approximately US$1.8 billion.

From the perspective of monetization model, Autohome mainly consists of three parts: media services (49.7%), promotion services (42.1%), and online market platforms (8.2%). Oriental Fortune consists of securities business (56.32%), financial e-commerce services (33.15%), and financial data services (6%). Looking at BabyTree, it is composed of advertising revenue (51.01%), e-commerce (45.6%), and knowledge payment (3.4%).

In comparison, whether it is performance scale or revenue model, BabyTree is no worse than Autohome and Oriental Fortune, but why is the valuation so high and low? In fact, regardless of the general background of capital being cold, it is still closely related to the competitiveness of enterprises in the industry. car home and eastThe two vertical communities of Fang Fortune have basically established certain industry competition barriers, and it is difficult for other players in the industry to pose a fatal threat to them in the short term. BabyTree is not so lucky. According to data from 360 Mobile Assistant, there are 512 applications related to "maternity and infants"; data from Yongyingbao shows that there are 132 "maternal and infant mall" applications, 90 "pregnancy preparation" applications, and 53 "parenting community" applications, covering almost all areas covered by BabyTree. If BabyTree wants to continue to hold on to its title of "the largest maternal and infant community", it will definitely have to face several tough battles in the future.

Finally, as for the future, according to Wang Huainan, internationalization will be a new aspect of BabyTree after its launch. We can continue to pay attention to this.