The growth rate of home appliances has slowed down. Are drones Changhong’s “New World”? | gambling hall, 32 cards casino game tricks

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic home appliance industry has shown a slowdown in growth, especially in the TV field. The smart TV replacement wave has passed since last year. Coupled with the increase in control panel prices, the market has clearly seen oversupply since this year. In such an environment, many traditional home appliance manufacturers have also taken precautions and implemented various counter-cyclical measures.

Changhong, as a long-established home appliance company, is naturally no exception. However, what is surprising is that Changhong recently announced that it has begun to develop and deploy drone business. For a while, there was a lot of discussion on this topic. After all, the concept of drones has been popular for so long, and Changhong has never seemed to have any "scandal" with it. Now it suddenly appears to be fighting high. So what are the chances of Changhong's success in launching drones this time?

Ideal and beautiful: "Three major advantages" help the drone business "take off"

The rapid development of artificial intelligence technology continues to give birth to new business forms. The rise of drones is based on this background. Especially when smartphones enter the stock market, drones have high hopes and have great room for imagination in terms of application scenarios. Therefore, many people regard them as the next outlet for smart hardware.

As Sequoia Capital founder Michael Mortiz said: Drones are the trend of the future. In a few decades, drones will be as common as trains and cars.

As a result, people's attention to drones has gradually risen to unprecedented heights, and the capital market and various venture capital have also expressed great interest in the drone industry. More and more entrepreneurs in the drone field are springing up like mushrooms after a spring rain.

According to the data currently available, there are more than 300 drone manufacturers in China. Five years ago, this number was only in single digits. Among them are some powerful players, such as domestic DJI and Xiaomi. For Changhong who is "catch the evening market", what are the advantages of using drones? This article seems to mainly focus on the following three aspects.

The first is the manufacturing gene of "Genhongmiaozheng".

UAV manufacturing is undoubtedly a manufacturing industry. It is the same as manufacturing refrigerators, TVs and other home appliances. Changhong’s ability to continuously promote diversification strategies in addition to its main businesses such as TVs and air conditioners is also based on its manufacturing genes. The same is true for today’s drones.

The essence of manufacturing is not just a combination of hardware, but large-scale manufacturing and good supply chain management capabilities, and drones are no exception. However, there are not many companies with core technologies in the industry today. More than 95% of companies are mostly engaged in assembly business and lack independent research and development capabilities. Therefore, for Changhong, although it entered the game late, its strong accumulation in the manufacturing field is unmatched by many industry players.

This is indeed the case. The entire UAV industry chain can be divided into product research and development testing, flight control system development, engine and other key component production, UAV assembly, UAV sales, and UAV control training.training, operation service business and other aspects. Let’s not talk about the back-end sales and training for now. The front-end manufacturing industry chain is too complex and cumbersome, and the requirements for each link are very high. Many companies are trapped in the integration of supply chain resources, and this is undoubtedly Changhong’s strength.

The second is strong sales channels and brand advantages.

Many emerging companies may have good technical capabilities and do a relatively good job in handling supply chain relationships, but they lack sales channels and relationship networks, so many players turn to technology output.

But for drones, technology and manufacturing are the foundation and the core of the upstream industry chain, but they cannot become the company's core business model. Whether it is making chips, single-point general-purpose technology, or assembly, it is unsustainable and commercialized insufficiently. It can only earn a small amount of gross profit and has not been able to participate in the implementation stage. It is also highly substitutable and cannot become a large company.

Changhong is different. It has been deeply involved in the production and sales of TVs, air conditioners, washing machines and other home appliances for many years, and has established a huge channel advantage. This is also unmatched by most drone startups.

In addition, drones are definitely a "new species" for everyone. Since it is a new species, both B-end users and C-end users need such an acceptance process. However, if a familiar brand launches such a product, it may be easier for people to accept it. At present, most companies in the drone track do not have brand resources like Changhong.

Finally, there is stable main business as support.

Many of those currently engaged in drone research are start-up companies, but for technological innovation such as the field of drones, all we can predict is that the industry will always break the ice one day, and there will always be a moment of large-scale commercial use. But the terrible thing is that the time is not predictable. We do not have a clear timetable, so spending money has become an endless project. And it is hard to rule out that the popular drones and unmanned vehicles may end up being just like VR, cloning and other well-known industries, which are just a false shot and are silenced again.

Therefore, for start-up companies, the biggest problem is how to avoid becoming "premature infants". If in a few years, drones cannot be commercialized on a large scale for a long time, the enthusiasm of capital fades, the bubble bursts, and the closure of the drone field will become inevitable.

But for Changhong, there is no need to worry about this issue. Because for Changhong, the field of home appliances is still its core business. With the support of this main businessess, Changhong has enough confidence to expand its business beyond the borders.

The moat of future enterprises must be built on multiple fortresses, and traditional home appliance giants should also keep pace with the times. From the current point of view, drone technology is not yet fully mature and has not yet broken through the bottleneck period. It is a wise choice for Changhong to rely on its own advantages to choose drones as a suitable outlet for layout.

The cruel reality: Entering the game blindly may inevitably lead to the “useless” business

It is true that the advantages of Changhong’s drones are obvious.It is easy to see, but the reality does not seem to allow it to be too optimistic. In addition to some of Changhong Enterprise's own problems, there are also industry-wide problems that hinder business development.

First of all, the industry has shown an oligarchy pattern.

According to the "2018-2023 China UAV Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategy Planning Analysis Report" released by the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, the top three in China's UAV market are DJI, Zero Degree Intelligent Control, and Parrot. Among them, DJI accounts for 52.5% of the market share, Zero Degree Intelligent Control accounts for 24.3%, and Parrot accounts for 12%.

It is not difficult to see that the form of oligopoly is very obvious, and there is actually very little space left for other companies.

For Changhong, although we have listed its very obvious advantages before, its goal should not be those countless drone startups, but to "wrestle" with industry leaders such as DJI. But it seems that Changhong still has a long way to go, and DJI’s first-mover advantages, including industry reputation, industry image, user mentality and other first-mover advantages are issues that Changhong needs to consider.

Secondly, drones entered the oligopoly market too early, which actually reflects the market’s “popularity but not success.”

For civilian drones, the biggest obstacle limiting their development is not price but policy.

From a user's perspective, the main function of a drone is to take photos of different dimensions. However, although the relevant laws and regulations have not been further clarified, it is certain that more and more countries, including my country, are gradually restricting the use of drones, because safety issues caused by drones have become commonplace.

It is understood that people hit by drone blades can easily bleed or even be seriously injured. Moreover, in many countries, drones have also brought difficulties to public security and anti-terrorism management. Many ordinary users have also faced fines and even prison sentences for inadvertently flying drones in violation of regulations.

In addition, there are indeed some people who use drones to do some illegal things. As a result, the government's control over drones is destined to be strict unless a good solution can be found. This has also caused people's enthusiasm for drones to fade a lot, and it is difficult for the civilian drone market to expand further. This is why drones have an oligopoly now, because the industry has hit its current ceiling.

Such a strict environment may give Changhong the feeling that there is no place for heroes to play. Many problems in the development of the industry cannot be solved by it. This bottleneck period of the industry will exist for a long time. As a result, drones are like a "tasteless" business to Changhong. It is tasteless to eat and meat to discard.

Finally, this problem comes from Changhong itself, which is the development drawbacks based on path dependence.

We mentioned earlier that manufacturing genes are Changhong’s advantage in launching drones, but the advantages are sometimes also disadvantages. Changhong’s manufacturing foundation is very obvious, but it has always been too focused on improving the level of manufacturing, which inevitably makes people put a big question mark on its technical level in the field of drones. After all, I have never heard of any intersection between the two. In fact, excessive advantages are actually equivalent to a rigid business model, which also limits many things it can and cannot do.

As a company that has been established for more than 60 years, entering new projects will inevitably encounter a series of problems that have never been encountered before. For example, it is difficult to change thinking patterns. Alibaba, which is booming in e-commerce, has repeatedly hated social networking; Tencent, which has two major traffic portals, WeChat and QQ, has also suffered repeated blows in its e-commerce business; Wanda Feifan, which was once given high hopes, turned out to be just wishful thinking of this domestic real estate giant.

So will Changhong's efforts in the drone market cause "acclimatization" like Alibaba, Tencent, and Wanda? This also requires Changhong's management to think carefully.

Be the pioneer on the B side, and slow down on the C side: finding the right "cutting point" is the key to breaking the industry

C-end users have a large number and consumption potential. Therefore, it is natural that most drone manufacturers want to get a piece of this cake. Even industry leaders like DJI have their main products centered around aerial photography. But the current problem is that C-side products are not easy to promote. At this time, we might as well consider more B-side application scenarios.

For any product, 2B projects are often more likely to succeed than 2C products, because the product positioning and user needs of most 2B products are very clear, and related product designs can be carried out in a targeted manner. Product design can be pushed in the right direction from the beginning.

2C products are different, because it is difficult for 2C products to have a "universal" standard and appeal, and there are many factors that affect the popularity of the product. This is why big data profiling has great value. Therefore, it is difficult for 2C product managers to clearly understand product positioning and user positioning. They usually launch an MVP (minimum viable solution) and then gradually improve and upgrade it.

From this point of view, the complexity of civilian drones is actually much higher than that of general 2C products, and it is greatly affected by policies. Therefore, focusing on the B-side and slowing down the C-side may be the correct attitude for development at the current stage.

Although many players are currently focusing on the B-side, the entire industry actually still has great potential that needs to be tapped. This is also where Changhong’s opportunities lie.

In the process of the rise of a brand, it must first clarify its positioning. Just as Xiaomi mobile phones focus on cost-effectiveness and focus on mid-to-low-end mobile phones; OPPO and VIVO, with their endorsements by popular brands, have considerable influence among young beauty-loving groups; Apple mobile phones firmly hold the top spot in the market with their innovative brand tone.

For Changhong, as a veteran state-owned enterprise with a military background, it can fully utilize its own advantages to focus on government procurement projects such as public security inspections, emergency rescue, and forest patrols.

In addition, agriculture is another major drone application scenario. Currently, drone companies such as DJI have launched many products for agricultural scenarios, but at present, the pain points are obvious.

First of all, the investment cost when using it in farm scenes is too high, mainly in terms of rental prices and batteries. It is not worthwhile when calculated comprehensively. This has also made many people on the market look down on the prospects of drones in agriculture. Many alternatives, such as sprayers, are more convenient and affordable than drones.

Secondly, the use is too complex, requiring relatively high professionalism from users, making it inconvenient to get started, and there are also safety hazards, and the environment in which the cultivated land is located requiresThe demand is also relatively high.

Finally, the battery life is short. Most drones can only operate for a maximum of 30 minutes, which causes a lot of inconvenience to users and does not bring an experience of improved efficiency.

The pain point in the industry is actually an opportunity for Changhong. In terms of cost, Changhong can use its complete industrial chain and rich production experience to reduce manufacturing costs and create high-quality, low-priced brand labels. At the same time, targeted research will be conducted in aspects such as battery life and operability. On the C-side, paying close attention to the direction and trends of policies, acting according to the situation, and finding the right development point are the keys to the future success of Changhong's drone business.

[Source: Blue Whale TMT Network Author: Liu Zhigang]