Sharing bicycles may be the craziest trial and error in the history of Chinese entrepreneurship | rtp agenslot138, daftar klub sepak bola indonesia, luxury138 slot

In May 2017, when young people from 20 countries rated the four new inventions of high-speed rail, scan-to-pay, shared bicycles and online shopping, the Chinese people were very happy and Wai Guoren was convinced. However, within a year, Mobai turned to prostitution and ofo was struggling to survive, and its aura quickly faded and fell into the world.

Bike sharing does burn money, but this is very common in China's entrepreneurial circles. He has done everything from taxi hailing to food delivery. Rebus also said earnestly, "Starting a business still requires money to burn." However, sharing bicycles has neither taste nor technical content, and in the end it burned down. No one expected that billions of dollars would end up like this.

In the past, Mobike and Ofo were in love with each other and competed for data at the end of each quarter. Although they have stopped now, the two companies still have more than 5 million daily active users and maintain enough user touch points in the sky. Why can't they turn their advantages into a victory?

Because bike sharing has always been a “non-customer” business.

The so-called non-customers are an economic concept, specifically referring to those groups who have the intention to consume but fail to become customers. To put it bluntly, there are two reasons. One is greed, which requires 9.9 yuan with free shipping; the other is laziness, which requires door-to-door services. In the context of the Chinese Internet, whoever can satisfy these desires with innovative models will become a god.

Of course, traditional economic organizations cannot do it because the cost structure does not allow it. Costco has achieved part of it. Its method is to turn itself into a buyer, take the user's $120 membership fee, travel around the world to buy at bargain prices, and make money on commissions rather than the goods themselves; Pinduoduo was able to break the situation because China has this wonderful combination of excess production capacity + high inventory + Internet low-price culture. Someone on the C end pays the bill, and someone on the B end naturally takes over.

Bicycle sharing aims to solve the problem of laziness.

Short-distance travel of 2-3 kilometers is in demand in all major cities around the world. Public rental bicycles appeared in Europe in 1995 and were transplanted to Beijing in 2008. Everyone has a docking model, which seems convenient, but there is still a huge and unmet "non-customer" demand, which is to freely pick up and return bicycles without any restrictions.

This is the value of shared bicycles. Everyone understands the business principles, but before Chinese entrepreneurs, no one dared to challenge such an asset-heavy, high-risk approach.

The reason is obvious. The business of accommodating the needs of "non-customers" simply cannot survive. Because it is convenient for you, it will be troublesome for others. That's why there are so many communities with "no entry for shared bicycles"; there are so many bicycles hidden in people's homes, so many QR codes have been scratched off, and so many subway stations are surrounded.

If you satisfy the bad nature of people, you will inevitably be defeated by the bad nature.

Wukong Bicycle has launched more than 1,000 bicycles in Chongqing, and the loss rate is as high as 90%. Cara Bicycle has been operating in Fuzhou PuOf the 667 vehicles put into the field, only 157 were left, with a loss rate of 76.5%.

Accommodating demands that are unreasonable and should not be met is the beginning of the downfall of any business.

Another crime of shared bikes is waste, which harms the real economy, but this is not as simple as it seems.

In their heyday, Mobike and ofo raised up to US$4 billion in financing, enough to launch 50 million shared bicycles. If they were all scrapped, it would be equivalent to the total structural steel of more than a dozen aircraft carriers. This is the media’s algorithm, and it is scary.

But isn’t that how our economy works? Orders for shared bicycles have been placed, steel plants are alive, car factories have resumed work, workers have been paid, shopping malls have customers, tax revenue has been guaranteed, and GDP has increased. What's more, shared bicycles burn investors' money, not financial allocations.

The core of the problem is that shared bicycles are unfinished. Last year, Wang Qingtuo, the "No. 1 Bicycle Town in China", received a business of 16 million units and experienced the pleasure of "resurrecting overnight and filling the ground with money." Mobike and Ofo brought a bit of hope to the struggling real economy, and then ruthlessly smashed it.

Why? Because shared bicycles are essentially a high-frequency, low-sticky user portal, a platform for traffic rather than rental income, all monetization methods will eventually fail, and there will be no chance of going overseas. The Internet of Things is someone else’s cup of tea, and the only thing left is traffic and advertising. Ofo uses deposits to buy financial products for users, which is this routine.

In February 2017, when Zhu Xiaohu gave the ofo platform, he said that a car cost 200 yuan, 50 cents a time, and he rode 10 times a day, and the cost was recouped in 3 months. However, a few months later, he changed hands to Alibaba and cashed out US$3 billion.

Everyone thought that the collapse of Xiaolan, Kuqi and others was the result of a pincer attack between Mobai and ofo, but in the end they discovered that this was a dead end with no winner.

The decline of shared bikes has had a devastating impact on the entrepreneurial world. It not only ended the violent aesthetic of money-burning, but also made a mockery of all successful formulas that once worked.

For example,If you have more money, you will definitely win?

Last year, the total documented financing of China’s Internet industry was US$54.7 billion. Shared bicycles took away US$3.77 billion, of which Mobike and ofo accounted for US$2.015 billion. In the top 10 list of the most funded companies throughout the year, ofo ranked fifth with US$1.2 billion, and Mobike ranked ninth with US$815 million. So what? easy come easy go.

If you run fast, you must be safe?

The Internet believes in being fast but not breaking. It is normal to burn money and lose money. Meituan and Didi have both survived. It is easy for latecomers to have the illusion that competition is like two people meeting a lion. I just need to run faster than you. The funder also has no help from Shao Shen. Zhu Xiaohu said that the battle will end in 6 months.

For a while, manufacturers such as Emma, Fujitec, and Feige were unable to meet the orders of Mobike and Ofo at full capacity. Shared bicycles had almost no market cultivation process, and they set off a steep straight line of rapid growth. At the beginning of 2017, Mobike and ofo each had 150,000 bicycles in Beijing. By the end of the year, based on the usage intensity of the two apps, someone estimated that the number of available vehicles had increased to about 1.3 million, of which Mobike had more than 500,000 and ofo had more than 800,000.If damage and loss are included, the total number may be close to 2 million vehicles, and the growth rate is simply scary.

However, 750,000 of these vehicles are used very infrequently, especially in popular business districts. Over-investment consumes user dividends and ultimately collapses the business model. As expected, if you want to die quickly, you have to run fast.

If you have a share, you will definitely win?

The market share of Mobike and ofo reached 85% in the middle of last year. In the second half of the year, as a group of friends went bankrupt, their share exceeded 95%. Didi and Uber, which were accused of monopoly at the time, only had 80%. Mobike and ofo fully possess all the characteristics of a duopoly.

But this makes entrepreneurs collapse even more. Everyone understands short-term operating losses or strategic losses. Why do the winners also fall after the battle? .

"High frequency, rigid demand, low substitutability, low cost, closed environment" is no longer the magic weapon for winning?

After Didi became popular, Zhang Zitao, the investment director of Zhen Fund, analyzed the remaining blank areas and found that recreating Didi needed to meet five indicators: high frequency, rigid demand, low substitutability, low cost, and closed environment. So he and Zhu Xiaohu’s Jinshajiang discovered ofo at the entrepreneurial stage at the same time.

According to Zhang Zitao, "Only ofo clearly meets more than 85% of the conditions." He did not specify which indicator ofo lacked, but it is obviously the remaining 15% that determines the fate of shared bicycles.

If a company with five secret skills such as "high frequency, rigid demand, low substitutability, low cost, and closed environment" is like this, don't panic if you are an entrepreneur.

The witch-making philosophy is no longer working.

In martial arts novels, voodoo is something that is extremely poisonous and yin. The Treatise on the Causes and Symptoms of Diseases once described the process of making voodoo, "Take many insects and snakes, store them in containers, and let them eat each other. If there is only one thing left alone, it is called a voodoo."

The most practical entrepreneurial methodology for investors is to create bewilderment, which is why in those capital-manipulated mergers, the stronger and more aggressive founders always have the last laugh.

Entrepreneurs are also superstitious about this, thinking that if they can’t kill me, I will win. As a result, Mobai and ofo killed more than 60 friends in half a year, and they still can’t guarantee their survival.

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The Chinese-style defeat of shared bicycles has two implications.

First, in the past, everyone used the smallest product to try and make mistakes to avoid risks and facilitate review, but investors like "teams with dreams"o;, in Xu Xiaoping’s words, it depends on “whether it can make my head hot”.

Mobai and ofo have the characteristics of making people hot, although it was later discovered that they were actually malaria.

Second, the way capital talks to entrepreneurs has changed.

In the spring, the conversation might go like this.

Q: Do you have a profit model?

A: We don’t consider this issue and don’t set limits for ourselves. The end of the war will be known by itself.

Don’t worry about being ridiculed by investors, competent investors will even help you “imagine”.

Zhu Xiaohu and Dai Wei calculated an account. Shared bicycles are currently used 50 million times a day, and will reach 200 million times in three years. The single-day revenue exceeds 100 million, and the annual turnover starts at 30 billion. Doesn’t this sound fantastic?

But the conversation in winter will be like this.

Q: Stop it, let’s talk after you make money!

A: Uh-huh.

After all, Xu Xiaonian has long said that innovations that do not make money are just hooliganism.

[Source: TMTpost Media Author: Chong Er]